OTB, pickup, pace, lead time — the vocabulary

Four words anchor every forecasting conversation: on-the-books, pickup, pace, lead time. Get the vocabulary wrong and the rest of the meeting is people talking past each other. Get it right and the daily standup gets 12 minutes shorter.

On-the-books (OTB)

The total rooms booked for a given stay date at any moment in time. A 240-key resort that has 168 rooms booked for July 14 is at 70% OTB for July 14. OTB is a snapshot — it changes every time a new booking or cancellation hits the PMS.

Pickup

The change in OTB between two snapshots. If July 14 was at 168 rooms OTB yesterday and 174 rooms OTB today, pickup is +6 rooms in 24 hours. Pickup is a rate, not a level — it tells you whether demand is accelerating or decelerating, not where it is now.

Pace

OTB compared to the same lead time in a prior period — usually same time last year (STLY). If July 14 was at 191 rooms OTB at this point last year and is at 168 today, pace is -23 rooms (or -12% in percentage terms). Pace is the most predictive single number you have, because it factors out the seasonality you would otherwise be comparing against.

Lead time

How many days in advance a booking is made. A booking received on March 12 for an arrival of June 18 has a 98-day lead time. Lead time matters because pricing strategy is fundamentally a lead-time problem — what is the right rate today for a guest who would otherwise book 30 days from today?

Putting them together

A useful single sentence: "July 14 is at 70% OTB, pace -12% to STLY, with 14 rooms picked up in the last 7 days, average lead time 21 days." That sentence tells you exactly what is happening. Without all four words, you are guessing.