Pace vs. last year: reading a pickup report

Pace is the single most useful number in revenue management. RevPAR tells you where you are; pace tells you where you are going. A revenue manager who can read a pace report fluently makes decisions four to six weeks before a revenue manager who only reads OTB.

What pace actually measures

Pace measures the rate at which rooms are being booked, compared to a baseline. Two baselines matter: same time last year (STLY) and same time previous period (the prior week or prior month at the same lead time).

Example: it is November 4th, and you are looking at December 21st. On November 4th last year, December 21st was 78% sold. Today, December 21st is 65% sold. Pace = -13 points. Your December 21 is selling slower than the same date last year. The question is whether that is a problem.

When pace is and isn't a signal

Pace is signal when: lead times are similar to last year, the comp-set is broadly stable, no major demand shift has happened (no new flight route, no canceled convention, no political event that scared off groups). In those cases, -13 points 47 days out means you will end up at lower occupancy unless something changes.

Pace is noise when: a corporate block last year has not yet committed this year (could land any day), a major OTA changed its visibility algorithm in the last 60 days (Booking.com's changes ripple for weeks), Ramadan/Christmas fell on different calendar weeks (impossible to compare directly). In those cases you have to break the pace number apart by segment and channel before you act.

The pickup column

Every pace report has a "pickup" column — how many rooms were booked in the last 24 hours, 7 days, 30 days. The pickup column is where you spot something the pace number hides. A flat pace with strong recent pickup means demand is real but late; you can probably hold rate. A flat pace with zero recent pickup means demand has gone away; you may need to drop a rate restriction.