Comp-set anchoring: STR, Demand360, your own intel

A budget that does not name its comp-set assumption is a budget that will be challenged. The owner will ask "what did you assume the market will do?" and if your answer is "we modeled growth based on our pace" instead of "STR forecasts the Antalya luxury comp set at +4.8% RevPAR and we are budgeting +6.2% based on three specific outperformance drivers," the conversation goes sideways.

Three data sources, ranked by what owners trust

STR (now part of CoStar) sits at the top. STR reports are subscribed by lenders, asset managers, brand finance teams, and most institutional owners. When you cite "STR shows the Antalya luxury segment at €182 ADR YTD November, +3.1% YoY" you are speaking the owner's language. The number is auditable, the methodology is transparent, and the comp set is fixed.

Demand360 (part of Amadeus, formerly Travelport) sits second. Demand360 gives forward-looking pace and lead-time data across a defined comp set — what owners and asset managers actually want to see for budget conversations, because it shows where the market is heading, not where it has been. The data is thinner than STR's historical depth but more useful for forecasting.

Your own intel sits third — and is the most powerful when used right. The KAM at Booking.com who tells you the new 180-key luxury opening 800m away has soft-launched at €165 ADR. The wholesale contract manager who tells you a major tour operator is shifting allocation 8% from your property to a competitor next summer. The front office manager who notices the same five corporate accounts shopping rates 14 days earlier than last year. None of this is in STR. All of it changes the budget.

How to triangulate

The trap I have seen three times

A revenue director, under pressure to deliver a higher budget than the market supports, anchors on a single soft data point — "the GM at the new opening told my counterpart they are at 38% occupancy and panicking." That becomes the basis for assuming the new supply will not absorb. Twelve months later, the new opening has stabilized at 64% occupancy, taken 4 points of comp-set demand, and your property is 8% below budget with no defense.

Single data points do not anchor budgets. A confluence of STR, Demand360, and three independent on-the-ground signals does. If your assumption rests on one phone call, your assumption is a guess wearing a suit.