Name: OtelCiro
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Key Takeaways

Pace analysis is a vital revenue management tool that provides real-time demand signals by tracking booking speed.
Comparing your current booking pace against historical data (e.g., last year) reveals demand strength, guiding proactive pricing adjustments.
Pick-up analysis monitors net new bookings over short periods, helping identify immediate demand shifts caused by events or campaigns.
Implement a data-driven, pace-based pricing strategy using a decision matrix to optimize rates according to booking pace and lead time.
Beware of common pitfalls such as abnormal historical data, the impact of cancellations, segment mix changes, and ignoring the price factor when evaluating pace.

Pace Analysis: The Compass of Revenue Management

Pace analysis (booking speed analysis) involves monitoring how quickly reservations are coming in for a specific date and comparing this speed to past periods. Pace analysis is the most powerful decision support tool in hotel revenue management because it offers real-time demand signals.

Booking speed is the most reliable indicator of a hotel's future demand. If bookings are accumulating faster than the same period last year, demand is strong, and you have an opportunity to increase prices. If they are accumulating slower, you can take early action to prevent occupancy loss.

Hotels that correctly interpret booking pace data make pricing decisions proactively, not reactively. This can make an 8-15% difference in annual revenue.

Infographic on hotel pace analysis and booking speed interpretation

Related reading: How Many Hours a Year Does Your Hotel Operate Empty? The True Cost of an Empty Room

Related reading: Dynamic vs. Static Pricing: Maximize Your Profits with the Taylor Swift Effect

How to Conduct Pace Analysis

Basic Pace Comparison

For a specific target date, compare the current occupancy data X days before that date with the same period last year.

Example: Target Date July 15, 2026

Days Remaining	Last Year's Occupancy	This Year's Occupancy	Difference	Interpretation
90 days out	%15	%22	+%7	Strong early demand
60 days out	%35	%45	+%10	Very strong pace
30 days out	%55	%68	+%13	Opportunity for aggressive price increase
14 days out	%70	%82	+%12	Maximum price can be applied
7 days out	%80	%90	+%10	Nearly full, premium pricing

Pace Graphs

Monitoring pace data graphically allows you to quickly spot trends:

Y-axis: Occupancy percentage
X-axis: Days remaining until the target date (from 90 to 0)
Two lines: This year vs. last year

The difference between the two lines determines the direction of your pricing decision.

NRevPAR (Net Revenue) Calculation Method

Pick-Up Analysis

Pick-up is the net number of new reservations received within a specific time frame (usually 1 day or 1 week).

Daily Pick-Up Table Example

Date	Starting Occupancy	New Bookings	Cancellations	Net Pick-Up	Closing Occupancy
March 1	%45	8	2	+6	%51
March 2	%51	5	1	+4	%55
March 3	%55	12	3	+9	%64
March 4	%64	3	1	+2	%66
March 5	%66	15	2	+13	%79

The sudden increase in pick-up on March 3 and March 5 is likely due to an event or campaign. Reading this signal allows for a price increase.

Pick-Up Evaluation Criteria

Daily Pick-Up	Assessment	Action
2× above normal	Very strong demand	Increase price by 10-20%
Above normal	Strong demand	Increase price by 5-10%
Normal	Standard demand	Maintain price
Below normal	Weak demand	Consider promotion
Zero or negative	Alert	Urgent price/promotion action

Related reading: Dynamic Pricing and AI: The Complete Guide to Hotel Price Optimization with Artificial Intelligence

Related reading: 65% of Travelers Accept Dynamic Pricing: Transparency Builds Trust

Pace-Based Pricing Strategy

Decision Matrix

Pace Status	Lead Time	Pricing Action
This year > last year (+%10)	30+ days	Increase price by 10-15%
This year > last year (+%5)	30+ days	Increase price by 5-8%
This year = last year	30+ days	Maintain price
This year < last year (-%5)	30+ days	Open early booker rates
This year < last year (-%10)	Under 14 days	15% last-minute discount
This year < last year (-%20)	Under 7 days	Aggressive discount of 20-30%

Weekly Pace Review Routine

Ask yourself these questions every week:

How is the pace for the next 30 days?
Where do we stand compared to last year?
Which dates show strong pace? → Increase prices
Which dates show weak pace? → Launch promotions
Is this week's pick-up normal?

Pace Analysis Pitfalls

1. Last Year's Anomalies

If there was an unusual event (pandemic, major event) during the same period last year, the comparison can be misleading. Using the average of the last 3 years is more reliable.

2. Impact of Cancellations

There can be a big difference between gross pace (including cancellations) and net pace (cancellations deducted). Always monitor net pace.

3. Shift in Segment Mix

Even if the total pace is the same, the segment mix might have changed. If the share of low-ADR segments has increased, revenue expectations will decrease.

4. Ignoring Price Impact

Achieving a high pace with low prices is misleading. Always evaluate pace in conjunction with ADR.

Related reading: What Is Dynamic Pricing? 5 Ways to Increase Your Hotel Revenue

Automated Pace Analysis with OtelCiro

OtelCiro's reporting module tracks pace data in real-time and automatically compares it with past periods. AI-powered anomaly detection instantly alerts you to unusual pick-up changes and suggests pricing actions.

Real-time pace dashboard: Instant occupancy and pace for every date
Multi-year comparison: 3-year trend analysis
Segment-based pace: Separate pace tracking for each segment
Automated price recommendation: AI-powered pricing advice based on pace data

Explore the OtelCiro Reporting Module

Related topics: Hotel Demand Forecasting and Occupancy-Based Pricing.

Conclusion

Pace analysis is the most reliable decision support tool in hotel revenue management. Read future demand by comparing it with the past, monitor pick-up data, and base your pricing decisions on pace data. Establish a weekly pace review routine and develop a proactive revenue management culture.

Automate your pace analysis with OtelCiro's reporting module and make data-driven pricing decisions.

Hotel Pace Analysis: Pricing Strategy Guide [2026]